Planning for matching aircraft models in different aviation markets will have a significant impact on the operational performance and profitability of airlines. The introduction of new aircraft is a resource-intensive process that has been planned for many years, involving financial considerations, operational needs, fleet compatibility, business training, and infrastructure construction, which will play a certain role in the selection, ordering, and delivery of aircraft models.

With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the recovery and development of the market, airlines will make careful planning and deployment of fleet planning based on the characteristics of regional market structure and passenger travel experience. The route structure characteristics of different markets require the selection of matching wide/narrow-body aircraft models based on flight distance, fuel consumption, cost, and passenger groups to maximize operational efficiency and achieve revenue targets. So, how can airlines make reasonable choices in fleet planning based on market development and changes?

Demand for wide-body aircraft tends to be relatively concentrated

With the recovery of the tourism market and the development of long-distance international routes, wide-body aircraft are highly praised by airlines for their long range and high passenger capacity, among which Boeing 777/787 series and Airbus A330/350/380 series are the main models. Due to market changes and the demand for more economical aircraft, the Airbus A380 aircraft has been discontinued, which has also brought new challenges to the development of aircraft models in the aviation transportation industry.

The pursuit of economic, comfortable, low-carbon emission and high-efficiency models has become a development direction of today's aviation transportation industry. At present, the Boeing 787 series of aircraft can be said to be the best-selling wide-body aircraft in history, with more than 1,800 orders from 87 airlines. In 2023 alone, Boeing has signed orders for nearly 350 aircraft in this series.

As part of the "Rising Sun Project" to achieve long-distance non-stop international flights, Qantas ordered 12 Airbus A350-1000 aircraft in 2022 and purchased another 12 in 2023. Qantas intends to use these aircraft to fly non-stop routes from Sydney and Melbourne to New York and London (currently, due to the range of existing aircraft models, only intermediate stopovers can be selected). Originally, these aircraft were to begin delivery in 2025, but at the end of February this year, Qantas announced that the ordered Airbus A350-1000 aircraft would be delayed until mid-2026. This is a big blow to Qantas' implementation of the "Rising Sun Project". It is reported that the reason for the delayed delivery is that Airbus Aircraft Manufacturing Company wants to redesign an additional fuel tank for the Airbus A350-1000 ultra-long-range aircraft ordered by Qantas.

In the past two years, Turkish Airlines has continuously expanded its market and route network through code sharing and opening new international routes. In November 2023, it used the Boeing 787-9 model to open flights from Istanbul to Detroit, the 13th flight point in the United States. In April 2023, Turkish Airlines formulated a 10-year plan for the company, including a fleet size of 435 by the end of 2023 and more than 800 by 2033. By then, the company's passenger route network will expand to 400 destinations worldwide, and it is expected that the passenger flight capacity in 2033 will double from 2023, and the annual passenger volume will reach 170 million. To this end, Turkish Airlines announced in December 2023 that it would order 220 aircraft from Airbus, including 50 Airbus A321, 50 A350-900 and 15 A350-1000 aircraft.

In order to implement the network expansion strategy and increase the flight density in important markets by opening new routes, Etihad Airways began to operate flights from Doha to Boston, the United States, from March 31 this year, and will subsequently open new routes to Nairobi, Kenya and Bali, Thailand. In this summer, it will also resume summer routes to Nice, France, Malaga, Spain, Mykonos and Santorini in Greece. Etihad Airways is optimistic about the Boeing 787 series aircraft. In October 2023, it received a Boeing 787-10 aircraft, and in February this year, it received three Boeing 787-9 aircraft. At present, Etihad Airways has a total of 88 aircraft, of which 43 are Boeing 787-9/-10 series aircraft, becoming the company's main aircraft model. Etihad Airways said that by 2030, the company plans to have 160 aircraft and will fly to 125 destination cities around the world.

Thai Airways International suffered a severe economic blow during the epidemic, especially in 2020, when it suffered heavy losses and had to apply for bankruptcy protection from the government. With the recovery and development of the aviation market in the Asia-Pacific region after the epidemic, Thai Airways International has timely adjusted its business strategy, reduced the number of international routes and optimized aircraft models, retired some aircraft including the Airbus A380, and updated its fleet according to the company's business development goals and the structural characteristics of the market. Thai Airways International, which already operates 6 Boeing 787-8s and 2 787-9s, ordered another 45 Boeing 787-9s at the Singapore Air Show in February 2024.

In December 2022, United Airlines announced an order for 100 Boeing 787s with an option to purchase another 100. This became the largest wide-body aircraft order in the history of US commercial aviation, and these aircraft are expected to be delivered between 2024 and 2032. It is reported that United Airlines expects to receive about 700 new wide-body and narrow-body aircraft by the end of 2032.

In order to improve the competitiveness of routes between Hawaii and the U.S. mainland and improve the travel experience of passengers, Hawaiian Airlines has set its sights on the Boeing 787-9 aircraft and plans to make it its flagship model in the future. In February this year, Hawaiian Airlines received the first of the 12 Boeing 787-9 aircraft it ordered, and plans to operate a daily flight on the Honolulu-San Francisco route from April 15, and will consider flying the Honolulu-Los Angeles route after May 14. It is reported that the first batch of 12 aircraft ordered by Hawaiian Airlines is expected to be delivered in 2027.

Economical medium- and short-range narrow-body aircraft are popular

In the selection of medium- and short-range aircraft, airlines prefer single-aisle narrow-body aircraft with low fuel consumption, low cost and long range. With the development of the aviation market, new requirements have been put forward for new aircraft in terms of the use of composite materials, biofuel technology and endurance. Boeing and Airbus are constantly improving and developing new technologies. In particular, Airbus has launched the A321LR and A321XLR for medium and long distance flights, as well as the A220-300, which are based on the Airbus A321Neo and are becoming more and more popular with users.

The Airbus A320LR single-aisle aircraft is an improved version of the Airbus A320neo aircraft. It has three additional fuel tanks in the center of the fuselage. The flight distance exceeds 7,400 kilometers and the passenger capacity reaches 206 people (if the entire cabin is economy class, it can carry 220 passengers). The Airbus A321XLR has a range of 8,700 kilometers and can fly continuously for 11 hours. Its range is 15% higher than that of the Airbus A321LR, and it is fuel-efficient. The maximum passenger capacity can reach 220 people.

There are two models of Airbus A220 aircraft, namely A220-100 and -300. The A220-100 and A220-300 aircraft can be configured with up to 135 and 160 seats respectively, with a maximum range of 6,300 kilometers. These aircraft have spacious seats, large luggage storage space, use advanced aviation materials, and have the characteristics of low noise and low fuel consumption. They meet international low-carbon emission standards and are a perfect combination of performance and technology.

In order to build the world's first network-based low-cost airline, AirAsia plans to expand to new routes in North Asia, Central Asia and Oceania in the next few years, as well as to extend to medium and long-distance routes in Europe (including London, Paris, Amsterdam, etc.), Africa (including Cairo, Nairobi, Cape Town, etc.) and the east coast of North America (including New York, Miami, Toronto, etc.). While introducing the wide-body Airbus A330neo, AirAsia announced at the end of February this year that it would change the existing order of 36 Airbus A321neo aircraft to Airbus A321LR aircraft. It is reported that AirAsia has a total order of 362 Airbus A321neo aircraft, which are expected to be delivered from June 2024. AirAsia said that it will adjust the order in the future and change the Airbus A321neo to the Airbus A321XLR.

American Airlines finalized an order for about 100 narrow-body aircraft in March this year. This order will be shared by Boeing and Airbus. The main models are Airbus A321neo and Boeing 737Max8 aircraft to replace the Boeing 737-800, Airbus A319 and A320 aircraft that are about to be retired in the fleet. These aircraft are expected to be delivered before 2030. American Airlines is a large user of narrow-body aircraft from Boeing and Airbus. At present, the company operates 133 Airbus A319s, 48 ​​A320s and 298 A321s. In terms of Boeing aircraft, American Airlines has 362 Boeing 737-800 and Boeing 737MAX8 orders.

In order to further consolidate the domestic market, Qantas has ordered 29 Airbus A220-300 aircraft to replace the Boeing 717 aircraft with a longer service time in its fleet. On March 1, Qantas will deliver the first two Airbus A220-300 aircraft it received to its QantasLink operation. Qantas' Airbus A220 aircraft has 10 business class and 127 economy class seats, and its range is almost twice that of the Boeing 717 aircraft. It mainly operates between domestic and regional tourist cities such as Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra. The third Airbus A220-300 aircraft will be delivered in June this year, and another four will be delivered in mid-2025.

In order to control operating costs and use the right aircraft models for the right routes, Breeze Airlines has made plans for the development of its fleet. The company will order and operate Airbus A220-300 aircraft. At present, Breeze Airlines has ordered 90 Airbus A220 series aircraft, and has received 20 aircraft and is operating normally. Breeze Airlines CEO Neeleman said that by the end of 2024, the company will have 32 Airbus A220-300 aircraft in operation, and will completely transition to a single model of Airbus A220-300 in the future. The average age of the fleet is about 2.5 years, which will also be the youngest fleet in the world. Once Breeze Airlines receives 90 Airbus A220-300 aircraft, it will become the third largest airline operating this type of aircraft in the world.

The choice of aircraft model depends on market demand and the length of the flight. On short-haul routes, airlines prefer narrow-body aircraft, such as the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 series, and the purchase price of such aircraft is often 3-4 times cheaper than wide-body aircraft such as the Boeing 777-300ER. Narrow-body aircraft have lower costs and higher utilization rates, which can bring higher capital turnover. Compared with wide-body aircraft operating 1-2 flights a day, narrow-body aircraft can operate 5-6 flights. However, on long-haul routes, especially on transatlantic routes, wide-body aircraft are significantly more efficient than narrow-body aircraft, and the average profit of wide-body aircraft can be 30-55% higher than that of narrow-body aircraft.

As early as June 2011, American Airlines announced the purchase of 460 narrow-body jetliners, including 260 Airbus A320 and 200 Boeing 737Max aircraft. This was the largest order ever among major US airlines, worth $38 billion at the time. In February 2023, Air India signed a purchase agreement with Airbus and Boeing, two aircraft manufacturers, to purchase 470 passenger aircraft, including 400 narrow-body aircraft and 70 twin-aisle wide-body aircraft. This broke the record for the number of single aircraft purchase transactions of American Airlines.

According to market information provided by Mordor Intelligence, 8,151 commercial passenger aircraft were delivered worldwide from 2017 to 2023; and 12,864 are expected to be delivered during 2024-2030. Due to the flexibility of narrow-body aircraft in fleet management and the ability to reduce operating costs, they are still relatively popular with buyers on medium and short routes. In 2023, the number of narrow-body aircraft accounted for 70.1% of the total global commercial passenger aircraft capacity.

In 2023, the Asia-Pacific air transport market has recovered and developed. The positive development of the market has, to a certain extent, driven the steady growth of the commercial passenger aircraft market in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023, the Asia-Pacific region became the leader in the global air transport market, with passenger traffic accounting for 35.53% of the world. In terms of commercial passenger aircraft operations, Airbus series aircraft will be in the leading position in 2022, accounting for 58.94% of the total number of all operating passenger aircraft in the world. China, India, Japan and Indonesia account for 70% of the total air passenger traffic in the Asia-Pacific region, which will lead to more growth demand for new aircraft in the region than in other regions.

In terms of demand for commercial passenger aircraft, airlines are increasingly paying attention to economy and comfort, low fuel consumption and low carbon emissions, and the demand for modern passenger aircraft with strong endurance, which will promote the development of the commercial passenger aircraft industry in the future. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, most airlines canceled or postponed aircraft orders due to the reduction in global air passenger traffic. In 2022, the aviation market gradually began to recover, and aircraft deliveries increased significantly compared with 2021. Since domestic market travel demand will be easier to return to 2019 levels than international market demand, the rebound speed of narrow-body aircraft market demand is faster than that of wide-body aircraft.

Currently, airlines are paying more and more attention to the introduction of sustainable aviation biofuel models. In September 2021, United Airlines signed an agreement to invest in Alder Biofuel Technologies and purchase 1.5 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel. In December 2021, United Airlines became the first company in the history of air transportation to use 100% sustainable aviation fuel for its aircraft. Many airlines, including Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, Singapore Airlines, and Virgin Atlantic, have stated that they will increase the proportion of sustainable aviation fuel used in their company aircraft within the next 10 years.